In the last few weeks the
pundits are questioning the viability of investing in equities. As a
result of the financial crisis, equities and real estate are down 30-50%, while
US government bonds (Treasuries) have had strong positive returns.
Furthermore, the pundits say that over the last 10 years the performance for
equities is now below that of bonds. (Keep in mind that when they speak about equities,
they are speaking about the S&P 500, which is only one investment category.)
They ask: Why take on the
additional risks of equities when you don’t even get rewarded over a
longer timeframe of, say, 10 years? Why
not buy Treasuries and decrease your
risk, uncertainty, and stress and still make as much money as you would in
equities?
While
Treasuries might appear to be the safe haven, buyer beware!
At this point in time, the
expectation for Treasuries is that they will do much worse than equities in the
coming years. Treasuries are also vulnerable to inflation (which is becoming a
more likely possibility). Therefore, a bond-only portfolio is far riskier
than we might think.
There are two important rules in
investing:
1) Buy low, sell high.
(Bonds are at an all-time high, stocks are at an all-time low. Your
choice is simple.)
2) Diversify. (The
only people who have lost all their money have been those concentrated in just
one or a few investment categories. Diversified investors have never lost
all their money.)
Can people who invest only in bonds lose
everything? Yes, it’s happened before. In Germany in the
1920s, because of hyperinflation, bond-holders lost it all.
Bonds represent only a few of
the many investment categories available in a highly diversified portfolio
(like my Rainbow Portfolio).
Given all the uncertainty today and that no
one can know the future, this is the most compelling time to choose a highly
diversified strategy. It is not the time to put all your money into
Treasuries, or for that matter, into any one investment category.